Bitcoin’s biggest challenge is its volatility and the boom and bust cycles that hinder further institutional adoption, JPMorgan said in a research report.
- The bank’s fair value estimate for bitcoin – based on the volatility ratio of bitcoin to gold – fell to around four times, or $38,000, analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in the note published last week.
- JPMorgan said its previous forecast of the bitcoin to gold ratio falling to around two times now seems unrealistic. The bank sees significant headwinds for both bitcoin and ethereum going forward.
- The challenge for ethereum is different to that for bitcoin, as it derives most of its value as a “decentralized application currency rather than a form of digital gold,” it said.
- Ethereum is facing challenges due to declining market share in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible-token (NFTs) sector, the bank said. During this month’s correction, ether failed to recapture market share from its main competitors with ether prices falling by a similar magnitude compared to smaller altcoins, the bank added.
- Similar to last May, unwinding of leveraged futures contracts played a significant role in the crypto market correction in recent weeks, the bank said, but this month’s unwinding of positions seems less severe.
- Bitcoin was trading around $37,244 as of publication time.