Between May 23 and 27, the equities markets had an impressive run, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ (NASDAQ: QQQ) ETF up over 7% and the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) up over 6.50%. However, this week’ whipsaws in price action occurred throughout the week and while the J trade session is not yet over, the weekly candlesticks suggest a close near last week’s open.
Currently, all major indexes face significant technical resistance levels above their present traded levels. Throw in thegrowing economic uncertainty and fears of a recession; the bounce may be limited.
Cryptocurrencies down again
The crypto market may close relatively flat but down for the week, extending its losing streak to an all-time high of nine consecutive weekly losses. Some altcoins this week were in the green, Cardano (ADA) and Stellar (XLM), for example, but both saw 50% to 70% of those gains wiped out.
The total market capitalization for the cryptocurrency market stands just above the $1.20 trillion level, which is getting uncomfortably close to the critical $1 trillion zone.
Oil continues to rise
Light crude futures (NYMEX: CL) continue to rise and could complete an implied close near 14-year highs, levels not seen since late July 2008. From April 11 to June 3, oil has already gained more than 20% and rests just below the $120 level.
The weekly crude oil inventory data on June 1 showed a massively larger drop of -5 million barrels versus the estimated -1.35 million. Even the recent agreement from OPEC+ to nearly double production has failed to stymy oil’s rise.
Food commodities tank
Wheat futures (CBOT: ZW) and corn futures (CBOT: ZC) are down this week, -10% and -6%, respectively. However, the drop in these markets is most likely due to severely extended overbought conditions, resulting in a technical pullback. Global fears and uncertainty about food security and scarcity continue to plague this market.
Dollar recovery may be underway
Like wheat and corn, the greenback is coming off of a technical pullback from extended overbought conditions. As a result, within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system, the US Dollar Index (TVC: DXY) has an implied close for the week that is higher with a marginal gain of 0.3%.
A strong technical bounce of the weekly Tenkan-Sen saw the DXY bounce more than +1%, but most of those gains have been lost. The DXY could drop lower to the critical 100 level near the weekly Kijun-Sen, but the hidden bullish divergence between the chart and the composite index may prevent further downside pressure.
That is not always the case, but the DXY should be viewed as a flight to safety. When money moves into the dollar, it is assumed that market participants are afraid and uncertain.
Coupled with continued economic uncertainty and some shakiness in the labor market, the DXY may continue its steady rise higher.
Major economic data next week to watch
- June 7: Canadian balance of trade and Ivey PMI data. US API Crude oil stock change.
- June 9: European Union Central Bank interest rate decision. US initial jobless claims.
- June 10: Canadian unemployment rate. US core inflation (MoM), real inflation rate, core inflation (YoY) and Michigan consumer sentiment.
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