You are currently viewing ‘Too early’ to say Bitcoin price has reclaimed key bear market support — analysis

‘Too early’ to say Bitcoin price has reclaimed key bear market support — analysis


Bitcoin (BTC) crept higher after the June 14 Wall Street open as analysts hoped that long-term support  had been preserved.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Hopes for “relief” from FOMC meeting

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it traded above $22,500 at the time of writing, having hit local highs of $23,300 on the day.

The pair had seen a strong bounce after nearing $20,800, with traditional markets likewise recovering after panic set in over United States inflation.

Eyeing where Bitcoin could go next, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators noted that the market had reclaimed the 200-day simple moving average (200 MA), an important feature of Bitcoin bear markets which acted as support throughout previous price cycles.

Nonetheless, it was “too early to tell” if the 200 SMA would continue to provide an attractive zone, a tweet stated, with the Federal Reserve due to provide inflation cues on June 15.

Keeping the Fed in mind were most crypto social media commentators, as expectations showed that the majority now favored an outsized rate hike next — 75 basis points instead of 50.

“Currently the market gives a 96% probability that the Fed delivers a 75bps hike on Wednesday. The market had recently been pricing in a 50bps hike but last week’s hot inflation data changed that sentiment. (This time last week a 75bps hike was given ~4% chance of occurring),” popular Twitter account @tedtalksmacro wrote in one of a series of tweets on the day.

He added that a 50-point rise would mean both stocks and crypto “should rally really hard,” while volatility was slated to mimic a “sell the rumor, buy the news” event.

“Maybe they provide some relief,” Decentrader co-founder Filbfilb agreed in his own post.

Time to buy, says metric in green for first time since $3,600

Meanwhile, excitement was brewing over an on-chain metric reaching the “buy” zone for the first time since March 2020.

Related: ‘Nothing issue’ — MicroStrategy CEO plans to hodl Bitcoin ‘through adversity’

The MVRV-Z score, an expression of how many standard deviations spot price is away from realized price, returned to negative territory as BTC/USD dived under $23,400.

MVRV-Z has historically caught the generation price bottoms of Bitcoin, and buying in its green zone has thus resulted in significant returns.

Cointelegraph reported on the significance of Bitcoin’s realized price earlier in the week.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z score chart. Source: Glassnode

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